Pakistan has test fired the Short Range Surface-to-Surface Multi Tube Ballistic Missile `Hatf IX’ NASR on Tuesday. Hatf IX NASR has a range of 60 kilometers and can carry both tactical nuclear warheads and conventional warheads. Two Hatf IX NASR Ballistic Missiles can be carried by a single transporter erector launcher (TEL).
Hatf IX NASR is a quick response system which has “shoot-and-scoot’’ nuclear delivery capability. Control surfaces behind the nose and at the tail of the Hatf IX NASR help in improving the missile's aerodynamic lift, stability and maneuverability during its whole flight.
Missile is powered by a high thrust, single stage solid propellant rocket motor which allows the NASR missile to accerlate very quickly and maintains a high speed.
Missile appears to be using an electro optical homing seeker for terminal guidance to achieve extremely low Circular Error Probable (CEP). CEP is used to measure the accuracy of the missile. CEP is the radius of a circle around the target in which 50% of the warheads aimed at that target will land.
Strategic analysts are calling the Hatf IX NASR as Pakistan’s answer to the Indian Cold Start Doctrine. Test of this missile is considered to be Pakistan’s way of saying that Pakistani scientists have developed the plutonium based tactical nuclear warheads with very low yields. Tactical nuclear warheads can be used by the Pakistan army in the battlefield to deterrent the larger Indian conventional land forces which has in last few years emphasized on the Cold Start Doctrine. Cold Start Doctrine calls for the rapid deployment of Indian armed forces against Pakistan to achieve surprise attacks.
Previously it was thought that Pakistan lacks the tactical nuclear warheads which allowed India to think that it can exploit this weakness and assumed that it will be extremely difficult for the Pakistan to resort to the nuclear weapons in case of Indian conventional attacks.
Test of the Hatf IX’ NASR has not only ended that ambiguity but also effectively ended the Indian day dreams of its hunger for limited war against Pakistan through its Cold Start strategy without raising the possibility of use of Nuclear warheads.
Director General of the Strategic Plans Division Khalid Ahmed Kidwai said the successful test flight of the quick response `Hatf IX’ NASR Ballistic Missile. System is capable of handling the evolving threats and it has consolidated Pakistan’s strategic deterrence capability at all levels of the threat spectrum.
I cannot help but laugh at the claims of using nukes in battlefield and then get away with it.
ReplyDeleteClaiming to use MBRL as tactical nuke capable, imagine the result. Even a tactical deployment of MBRL(even with conventional warhead) will be consider active nuke deployment and Pakistan will be subjected to Indian strategic first strike!
See the problem?
It is only Pakistan which is replacing even it's bullets with nukes!
My dear friend tactical Nuclear warheads are designed to strike the enemy forces at the battle front so short range of the weapons in most of the cases will not be a problem. Pakistan have many long range ballistic missiles, strike aircraft and cruise missiles if they want longer range.
ReplyDeleteNow coming to the second point of yours, Friend You just talked about the basic logic behind the development of this weapon system.
You see Indian Cold Start Doctrine is based on the assumption that in case of a limited attack Pakistan cant use the strategic nuclear warheads as it will accelerate into a full flag nuclear conflict.
Therefore Indians feel that they can attack Pakistan with a rapid but small force to punish Pakistan but not to the end where it can use strategic nuclear weapons which will force International community to intervene or stop India as Full Nuclear war will have no winners but only looser at both sides.
This assumption putts Pakistan on the spot light of stating a full nuclear war.
Now with the tactical nuclear Pakistan can Strike the only attacking forces of the India and say we are not going to attack Indians or any of the Indian military facilities but rather Pakistan is only targeting the aggressive forces in self defence.
Now ball is in India's court, Off-course India can decide to launch a nuclear strike against, but this will be considered as second act of aggression by the Indians, Thus a full scale nuclear war will be more likely then ever, the very point India is avoiding to talk about full conventional war.
So in simple words just like you said my dear friend, use of the tactical nuclear weapons can very will be a stepping stone towards a full scale nuclear war which will have only looser, but then isn't all the nuclear weapons create deterrence based on the same principe of fear of total destruction.
Lest hope for the millions of Indians and Pakistanis that it will never come to that and we will be able to resolve our issues peacefully.
Thank You for your comment
Hope you will continue the positive input like this one future too.
Nice comments Mr. Qamar.i agree with you. purpose of the nuclear weapons is to avoid war.and it is Pakistan's right to develop such capability to offset newer threats keeping in mind the evolving strategic environment of the region.
ReplyDeleteo operationalise this concept (CSD) the Indian military has carried out almost 10 major exercises close to the border with Pakistan. Main purpose of these exercises was to overcome the deficiencies in the Indian military and develop synergy and integration among the armed forces to carry out integrated operations against Pakistan. In these exercises the Indian Army introduced latest ******s and equipment, including Long Range Reconnaissance and Observation System-(LORROS), this system would enhance her surveillance, observation and targeting capabilities. In 2005 Indian military practiced Force Multiplication Command Post- (FMCP) to integrate real-time flow of information as a principal tool for decision making and NCW capabilities in the Indian Army.for details please visit link below (http://www.eurasiareview.com/indias-military%E2%80%99s-cold-start-doctrine-and-impact-on-deterrence-stability-in-south-asia-analysis-17042011/)...and thanks for sharing ur thoughts..Take care
Nice comments Mr. Qamar.i agree with you. purpose of the nuclear weapons is to avoid war.and it is Pakistan's right to develop such capability to offset newer threats keeping in mind the evolving strategic environment of the region.
ReplyDeleteo operationalise this concept (CSD) the Indian military has carried out almost 10 major exercises close to the border with Pakistan. Main purpose of these exercises was to overcome the deficiencies in the Indian military and develop synergy and integration among the armed forces to carry out integrated operations against Pakistan. In these exercises the Indian Army introduced latest ******s and equipment, including Long Range Reconnaissance and Observation System-(LORROS), this system would enhance her surveillance, observation and targeting capabilities. In 2005 Indian military practiced Force Multiplication Command Post- (FMCP) to integrate real-time flow of information as a principal tool for decision making and NCW capabilities in the Indian Army.for details please visit link below (http://www.eurasiareview.com/indias-military%E2%80%99s-cold-start-doctrine-and-impact-on-deterrence-stability-in-south-asia-analysis-17042011/)...and thanks for sharing ur thoughts..Take care
@Qamar,
ReplyDeleteI do understand what is tactical nukes.
And let me tell you there is no concept of "limited nuclear war".
What makes you think that India will allow even tactical nukes be used on it's forces? just because the bang is not big enough?
You deploy nukes on a battlefield and let the enemy know about it, what do you think the enemy will do?
He will launch a nuclear first strike. Since it has to be launched anyway after tactical nukes have been deployed, why not use it first? and wipe out the whole tactical nuke units? Since India decides to go for first strike, why not make sure Pakistan never gets to use it's nukes?
You see the issue?
There is a reason why US & Russia are developing MOAB & FOAB's. A tactical nuke can do the job thousand times better than a MOAB, but US cannot use it! It will break the international deterrent.
Let us even assume that Pak gets to use the tactical nukes and India does not respond. What happens next? The world will come screaming in to Pakistan to make sure it is de-nuked, as Pak will be considered
not trust worthy with nukes and bring down the world nuclear deterrent.
Despite having the biggest bang, it is worthless as a real weapon. For Pakistan as well as to India. And to China, US, Russia & Israel as well.
PAKISTAN ??
ReplyDeleteWHOSE TOTAL DEFENSE GDP IS 2-3 BILLION DOLLAR !
WHERE AMERICA,RUSSIA,INDIA,FRANCE INVEST BILLION BILLION DOLLAR FOR JUST MODERN BALLISTIC MISSILE TECHNOLOGY !
SO ALL SUPERPOWER COUNTRY NEED TO FOLLOW THE PAKISTAN PATH !
WHO GOT THE MISSILE TECHNOLOGY WITH LOW COST !
There is whole concept of the "limited nuclear war" and that’s the only reason there were thousands of tactical nuclear warheads developed by the USA and USSR.
ReplyDeleteOnce Indian forces attack Pakistan despite clear message of possible use of nuclear warhead, Pakistan won’t be asking for Indian permission use its nuclear weapons.
I completely described the situation how things can go and What will happen in such situations and tactical nuclear weapons used by the Pakistan against the aggressive forces in self defense
This lot more different then starting a full scale nuclear just like, but as I said previously it certainly can accelerate into a full scale nuclear war. Use of tactical nuclear weapons against similarly-armed opponents carries a significant danger of quickly escalating the conflict beyond anticipated boundaries, from the tactical to the strategic but Pakistan has said that it is prepared to use it rather then loose it and suffer humiliation
Given the number of nuclear weapons and delivery systems neither Pakistan or India can ensure the complete destruction of nuclear warheads of other country. If you research a bit you will find out that nuclear forces o Pakistan and India are almost of the same capability and it is a fact supported by the studies of almost all the independent resources on the subject.
Both USA and Russia had hundreds of tactical nuclear warheads and large majority of their nuclear warheads actually have variable yield nuclear warheads which are practically both tactical and strategic in nature
US & Russia are developing MOAB & FOAB no one in its right mind is going to attack them and they can use the MOAB & FOAB while being aggressive forces.
No one can disarm Pakistan or any other nuclear state. Had it been a possibility don’t you think USA, India would have done this already?
How you disarm a Nuclear Pakistan which has already used nuclear option against the aggressive forces in its self-defense? Do you really think that any western leader in its right mind will even think about sending force to disarm Nuclear Pakistan?
Pakistani nuclear capability is at very advance stage with over hundred nuclear warheads supported by comprehensive cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
USA, whole of west, south Korea and Japan couldn’t stop or disarm north Korea so atleast i don’t see any such possibility and believe me despite what few fanboys may say there is no magical way
Is it worthless? Pakistan and Indian fought soon after independence then in 1960s, then in 1970s but then came the threat of nuclear weapons and no war in 1980s, a very limited war in 1990s and despite three escalations in 1990s no war.
What you think was stopping those escalations in 1980s, 1990s and 2000s?
This is exactly what nuclear deterrence is all about
Pakistan has never hid it intentions and has been very clear from the start that either it’s not war or it’s a nuclear war while Indian position is there can be a limited war, hence the Indian Cold Start Doctrine.
So if India underestimates Pakistani intent and goes ahead with its limited war, what makes them sure that it wont have a significant danger of quickly escalating the conflict beyond anticipated boundaries and turn into a full scale war leading towards use of tactical and then strategic nuclear weapons?
like i said before, lest hope for the millions of Indians and Pakistanis that it will never come to that and we will be able to resolve our issues peacefully.
Thank You for your comment
Hope you will continue the positive input like this one future too.
To Sourodip,
ReplyDeleteLet’s put USA, Russia and France out of it because they have developed most of similar if not far more advance missiles decades ago with work starting from the scratch and they did develop it in a way to which I usually refer by using the term wholesale.
Pakistan and India are nowhere near them in term of investments, technology and insanity
For example USSR developed three-stage hydrogen bomb Tsar Bomba with a yield of about 100 megatons. This was over 5555 times more powerful then the Little Boy which was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945 or putting it another way Tsar Bomba hydrogen bomb was twenty times more powerful than that of all the explosives used in World War II combined. To reduce the nuclear fallout of such a powerful weapon, its yield was reduced to about 50 megatons at time of detonation on October 30, 1961.
US itself produced B41 thermonuclear bomb with yield of 25 megatons which still makes it almost 1400 times more powerful then the Little Boy which was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945 and five times more powerful than that of all the explosives used in World War II combined.
In case of India and Pakistan that is not the case and advancement in technology, computing power and commercialization not only cost, but also the time to develop advance weapons has decreased significantly.
As far as the defense budget is concerned nuclear and missiles programs fall under the classified part for which budget is never announced.
Thank You for your comment
Hope you will continue the positive input in future too.
@Qamar,
ReplyDeleteLet us keep the "will use it rather than get humiliated" rhetoric to the people who are good at it.
If Pakistan was so worried about humiliation, US drones would not have been attacking Pakistan on a daily basis.
The problem with some people in Pakistan or India who are gun ho about using nukes and think can win the war, is that they have never been in the shoes of a person who will order and take responsibility for using nukes.
Think about it. If you are a Pakistani general at the border with the power to fire nukes, wouldn't you have to think that your single action will result in a strategic attack on cities and kill near & dear ones, friends, innocent people... all because Indian forces are what 3-5 km inside Pakistan?
Will the General think it is worth it? it is a very difficult question.
It is not that easy as it is made out in the news.
How will Pakistan go about.
Will Pakistan use one nuke on Indian forces, then look at the result? if not satisfactory use another? Tactical nukes are not powerful enough to stop Indian armor.
Here is a video of a 1kt blast.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=351zid4NHKI
At the most what 5-10 tanks, 100-200 soldiers? will be lost.
What would be the blast radius of a 15 kt(hiroshima) nuke? maximum 2 km.
15kt is Pakistan's strategic nukes.
How much of Indian forces will be present in 2km radius? Will Pakistan be ready use nukes if Indian forces are on the door step of say Lahore?
Remember this "nuke response" to Cold Start involves nuking a part of Pakistan. Nuking Indian area is pointless as Indian forces will inside Pakistan.
So how much of nukes is Pakistan ready to use it on it's own soil to stop Cold Start? 50? 70? 100?
--------------------------
Regarding US & Russia, if they so believe in tactical nukes, how many did US in Vietnam? How many did Russia use in Afghanistan?
Zero.
If US had no problem using Nukes on Japan, why not on Vietnam?
And let us not be delusional about the power of US & Russia. They have been tracking thousands of nukes for 60 years. You think they will have difficulty tracking 100 odd nukes of Pakistan or India?
There is nothing grandeur about Cold Start despite the glamorous name.Pakistan being a small country is able to mobilize faster in a conflict. Cold Start is nothing but matching or being earlier than time.
Deterrent to Cold Start is conventional buildup, which PA knows very well and is doing it, despite the propaganda in Pakistani media.
Check out what are the new mechanized regiment that is raised in PA and what are it's objective.
You will understand.
@Qamar,
ReplyDeletejust to add, NK is not been dis-armed, because it does not have nukes.
The test failed. Moreover NK is more than ready to give up whatever fissile material it has.. for a sack of rice!
Anonymous said...
ReplyDeleteStupidity goes nuclear — I
http://tribune.com.pk/story/156311/stupidity-goes-nuclear--i/
NASR1 is a real "April Fool" pulled on the Pakistani's by the ARMY ..
My friend,
Mr.Ejaz haider has a very diffident but very good analysis
Writer has never challenged the capability of Ballistic Missile Hatf IX (NASR) or TNW but the logic of its development and issues surrounding it. so making reference to the NASR1 as a real "April Fool" is like keeping the eyes close and saying there is no threat because i cant see any. i am sure Indians are way better then this.
If you have gave some attention to it, his main focus has been that development of the Tactical Nuclear weapons and associated delivery system will actually give India an idea that Pakistan is willing to Fight a limited war which is against the logic of developing the Strategic Nuclear Weapons. He wants Pakistan to stick with Use of Strategic nuclear warheads in case of Indian Attack
Thank you for you Positive part of comment (other part was deleted because it serves not purpose but the inflammatory one)
The very fact that this test has received bad press and negative remarks from across the border is evident enough of its success. The "Vijay Bhav" exercises by "Indian Armed Forces" are obsolete now. They have to go back to the kitchen and try to come up with a different recipe of trying to (in the words of General Deepak Kapoor) "Teach Pakistan a lesson". roflol.
ReplyDeleteThe use of battle field nuclear weapons was part of US/NATO doctrine of flexible response back in the cold war days. The concept envisaged the use of tactical nukes to destroy large Warsaw pact tank concentrations and air facilities. But the issue remains the same, how do you avoid escalation! The answer is simple, you ensure the deterrent effect of MAD and flexible response is enshrined in your military doctrine..... Once your enemy understands the futility of large scale armored thrusts and obvious first use policy, there is little point in attacking. So the current Pakistani doctrine and obvious urgency in amassing more nukes of different types is just right. Before 2000 if India had the courage to go to war especially after Kargil the situation would have been different. Now, with all the new delivery systems and expanding stock pile of nukes going to war is just plain stupid ..... Cold start or hot war, it's a no go, forget it.
ReplyDeletewell.. hello there everyone. I have a word or two to add. well its useless to talk about things in such an enthusiastic undertone. There is no denying the fact that Indian forces are over armed and thus rotten. It has been forecasted in the ancient scriptures that "India will continue to fall at the hands of the invading armies again and again till the day of judgment."
ReplyDeleteSo learn from your past. Weapons or no weapons, its this three lettered word (F.A.L.L) that has been written in the destiny of India from the time of the creation of this world.
see the problem?
The missile will be used on Indian forces within Pakistani territory. It will have immense deterrent value. The fallout will be less. The issue of territorial strike goes, thus it is entirely usable by Pakistan in self defense within Pakistani territory. Also for Pakistan, any strike by India will mean fighting for survival.
ReplyDeletewaqas alam PAKISTAN AIR FORCE
ReplyDeletethe more who spent more money will be more powerful but the main thing what i think is the cheaper the cost the best performance.
so, Pakistan is the Only muslim country which is defending its boundaries all around with exec lent perfection
LONG LIVE PAKISTAN
LONG LIVE PAF
To all idiots who are not ready to listen and understand any thing good by Pakistan. Just goto neutral analysts and ask what is the sole purpose and importance of TNW. and please dont rely on insanic indian media and their dumb scientists and analysts who are unable to develop a single jet in 30 years.
ReplyDelete