US documents show that Pakistan had four concerns few of which has already been explained in yesterday’s article at the Pakistan Military Review, Pakistan feels that Indo-US nuclear cooperation allows India to use imported uranium for its electricity generating reactors while they can use the domestic production for the enhancement of the nuclear fissile material.
Second point raised by the Pakistanis is that because of the cooperation by the US, Russia and EU, India will be able to import dual propose technologies and use it for the advancement of India's nuclear systems.
Thirdly India is purchasing weapons worth tens of billions dollars each year from the US, Russia and EU. This is leading towards a strategic conventional imbalance in the region.
Maria Sultan, Director General of the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute has said that Pakistan is now looking for the tactical nuclear warheads. These small, low yield nuclear warheads will be deployed against enemy to counter it’s the large force. She says that this requirement will significantly increase the required fissile material.
Pakistani officials also raised concerns about the Indian investments in the missile defense systems. Pakistan feels that while India is atleast years from fielding a capable BMDS, but with active help from abroad Indian is looking to degrade the nuclear weapons capability in long run.
Pakistan is of the view that in light of these concerns it is not in Pakistan’s interest to start the negotiations for the signing of the FMCT.
Pakistan sees the FMCT as a mean that will ultimately help India which is using multipronged strategies like increase in production of fissile material, clear intent to field the ballistic and cruise missile defense systems to degrade the Pakistan’s ballistic and cruise missile’s ability to penetrate into Indian airspace and alarming increase in purchase of the conventional weapons and dual use technologies to assert its clout over Pakistan in long term.
Pakistani officials feel that FMCT is a global treaty that does not take into account any of the Pakistan’s apprehensions into consideration, therefore it hold very little worth for Pakistan. While it is in interest of the P5 countries to hold such negotiations as they have huge fissile material reserves to manufacture thousands of nuclear weapons, countries like Pakistan will not get a lot out of it by engaging larger foe like India unless treaty deals with issues like regional balance in areas like conventional weapons, dual use technologies that can help India advance its nuclear as well as ballistic/cruise missile programs and Anti-Ballistic Missile systems.
India has already made significant investment in the two ballistic missile defense systems to detect and destroy the enemy ballistic missiles before they can deliver their payloads. For this purpose India is getting huge help from the countries like Israel, France and Russia. This help includes long range early warning radars, fire control radars and seekers for the interceptor missiles.
US companies has stakes in the projects like long range early warning radars which are provided to India by Israel. US itself has offered India to sell complete Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) terminal Anti-Ballistic Missile systems system. PAC-3 has been successfully used by the US and its allies in the Gulf War-II. United States has also offered to sell the premier Anti-Ballistic Missile systems of the US navy, Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System which consist of the SM-2 Block IV air defense missiles and Aegis Combat System.
Such actions by the Russia, US and its allies are going to fuel a nuclear arms race in the region.
Lt. Gen. Kidwai who is the Director General of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) is against the idea of starting negotiations on FMCT. He is of the views that such negotiations should be delayed. Maria Sultan has said that over 70% of the administration and government officials completely agree with Kidwai. They feel that such delay would allow Pakistan to get advantage of the investment s made in the production of uranium and plutonium.
So it is in US interest to stop the proliferation of the technologies like anti-ballistic missile systems and other dual use technologies. US must also take a looking into the Indo-US nuclear deal to make sure that India doesn’t take advantage of the situation to increase the stock of its fissile material.